Distribución potencial bajo escenarios de cambio climático de corales del género Pocillopora (Anthozoa: Scleractinia) en el Pacífico oriental tropical

Autores/as

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22201/ib.20078706e.2019.90.2696

Palabras clave:

Acidificación, Aumento de temperatura, Modelos de nicho ecológico, Distribución espacial, Scleractinia, Hábitat marginal

Resumen

En el Pacífico oriental tropical (POT), los pocilopóridos representan un componente clave de las comunidades coralinas, las que se desarrollan en condiciones ambientales limitativas. El objetivo de este estudio es comprender cómo el cambio climático, en particular el aumento de la temperatura y la acidificación, podrían influir en la distribución de estas especies coralinas. Se usaron modelos de nicho ecológico para evaluar posibles cambios en la distribución geográfica de 9 especies de pocilopóridos, basados en las predicciones de aumento de temperatura y disminución del pH bajo los escenarios “vías de concentración representativa” (RCP, por sus siglas en inglés) 2.6, 4.5 y 8.5 para el año
2050. Las proyecciones elaboradas con Maxent, muestran una tendencia hacia la conservación del área de distribución de las especies en el escenario RCP 2.6, mientras que se observó un aumento en el área favorable para la mayoría de ellas bajo los escenarios RCP 4.5 y 8.5. Hacia el 2050, las condiciones óptimas para la presencia de los corales se
ubicarán en latitudes altas y hacia el ecuador. Finalmente, se prevé que regiones actualmente consideradas marginales para el desarrollo arrecifal persistan y se expandan bajo condiciones futuras. Estos resultados tienen implicaciones importantes para la conservación de los arrecifes marginales bajo un clima cambiante.

Citas

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2019-06-27

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ECOLOGÍA